O*NET-SOC code
43-5021.00

Pick up and deliver messages, documents, packages, and other items between offices or departments within an establishment or directly to other business concerns, traveling by foot, bicycle, motorcycle, automobile, or public conveyance.

  • Data source: BLSPublished: 2026-08

    Moderate· relative

    LowFour relative bandsVery high

    Group-level value

    Scale, basis and source

    Four relative bands (Low / Moderate / High / Very high)

    831 detailed occupations in the BLS Employment Projections table. Assigned per National Employment Matrix (NEM) code, so occupations sharing a NEM code carry the same band

    Source dataset (XLSX download)

  • Data source: AnthropicPublished: 2026-03

    0.041

    0.000Range of values carried here0.745
    Scale, basis and source

    Observed exposure index, 0–1 as published

    Mapped onto O*NET tasks

    Published per SOC 2018 occupation; every O*NET occupation with the same SOC 2018 code carries this value

    Source dataset (CSV download)

  • Data source: ILOPublished: 2025

    0.21–0.41· 4 ISCO-08 groups

    Scale, basis and source

    Generative AI exposure index, 0–1 as published

    Published per ISCO-08 unit group. Linked to this occupation, wholly or in part, by applying U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics crosswalks (ISCO-08 to 2010 SOC, 2010 SOC to 2018 SOC) as published

    Source dataset (PDF download)

What kind of figure this source publishes

The BLS category is a relative rank, not an absolute level, and it is not a first-hand measurement: it groups an occupation's percentile ranks across several published studies into four bands. It is not an employment or wage forecast, not a probability of adoption, and it does not separate automation from augmentation.

ILO value for each linked ISCO-08 group
  • ISCO-08 4412Mail Carriers and Sorting Clerks0.41
  • ISCO-08 8321Motorcycle Drivers0.25
  • ISCO-08 9331Hand and Pedal Vehicle Drivers0.21
  • ISCO-08 9621Messengers, Package Deliverers and Luggage Porters0.37

Task-level exposure

Exposed tasks only

17 rated tasks · 6 tasks with β ≥ 0.5 (35.3%)

β = direct exposure (E1) + 0.5 × exposure when tools are available (E2), per the source repository's definition.

  • Source unit: O*NET 27.2 tasks → O*NET 31.0 occupation code
  • 1 rated task is not in the O*NET 31.0 task list; its score is kept as published for O*NET 27.2.
Source
OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" exposure rubric
Release
gh-main-0471612
License
MIT License, Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI

Values in this tab are predicted labels, not observations. Eloundou et al. (2023) published two rating regimes — human raters and GPT-4 — and the β shown here is derived from the GPT-4 rater basis alone; the same task can take a different value under the other regime. The unit and the meaning differ from the observed shares (%) in the other tabs, so do not place them on the same axis.

Task (O*NET 27.2)βE1 + 0.5 × E2
Receive messages or materials to be delivered, and information on recipients, such as names, addresses, telephone numbers, and delivery instructions, communicated via telephone, two-way radio, or in person.

O*NET Task ID 7013

1.0
Record information, such as items received and delivered and recipients' responses to messages.

O*NET Task ID 7018

1.0
Check with home offices after completed deliveries to confirm deliveries and collections and to receive instructions for other deliveries.

O*NET Task ID 7019

1.0
Use telephone to deliver verbal messages.

O*NET Task ID 7021

1.0
Plan and follow the most efficient routes for delivering goods.

O*NET Task ID 7014

0.5
Sort items to be delivered according to the delivery route.

O*NET Task ID 7016

0.5
Walk, ride bicycles, drive vehicles, or use public conveyances to reach destinations to deliver messages or materials.

O*NET Task ID 7010

0.0
Load vehicles with listed goods, ensuring goods are loaded correctly and taking precautions with hazardous goods.

O*NET Task ID 7011

0.0
Unload and sort items collected along delivery routes.

O*NET Task ID 7012

0.0
Deliver messages and items, such as newspapers, documents, and packages, between establishment departments and to other establishments and private homes.

O*NET Task ID 7015

0.0
Obtain signatures and payments, or arrange for recipients to make payments.

O*NET Task ID 7017

0.0
Perform routine maintenance on delivery vehicles, such as monitoring fluid levels and replenishing fuel.

O*NET Task ID 7020

0.0
Open, sort, and distribute incoming mail.

O*NET Task ID 7022

0.0
Perform general office or clerical work, such as filing materials, operating duplicating machines, or running errands.

O*NET Task ID 7023

0.0
Collect, seal, and stamp outgoing mail, using postage meters and envelope sealers.

O*NET Task ID 7024

0.0
Unload goods from large trucks, and load them onto smaller delivery vehicles.

O*NET Task ID 7025

0.0
Deliver and pick up medical records, lab specimens, and medications to and from hospitals and other medical facilities.

O*NET Task ID 20903

0.0

β = E1 + 0.5 × E2 · E1 = tasks where direct LLM access alone cuts time by at least 50%, E2 = tasks where software built on top of an LLM cuts time by at least 50%. Values take only 0 / 0.5 / 1.0.

Data sources & licenses — O*NET®, Eloundou et al. (2023): see full notices on the Credits page

All O*NET 31.0 task statements (16)

All O*NET 31.0 task statements for this occupation (English, as published; task type core or supplemental). Exposure values are not listed here; they are in the table above, next to each task statement as worded in the O*NET version each source used.

Task (O*NET 31.0)Type
Walk, ride bicycles, drive vehicles, or use public conveyances to reach destinations to deliver messages or materials.Core
Load vehicles with listed goods, ensuring goods are loaded correctly and taking precautions with hazardous goods.Core
Unload and sort items collected along delivery routes.Core
Receive messages or materials to be delivered, and information on recipients, such as names, addresses, telephone numbers, and delivery instructions, communicated via telephone, two-way radio, or in person.Core
Plan and follow the most efficient routes for delivering goods.Core
Deliver messages and items, such as newspapers, documents, and packages, between establishment departments and to other establishments and private homes.Core
Sort items to be delivered according to the delivery route.Core
Record information, such as items received and delivered and recipients' responses to messages.Core
Perform routine maintenance on delivery vehicles, such as monitoring fluid levels and replenishing fuel.Core
Deliver and pick up medical records, lab specimens, and medications to and from hospitals and other medical facilities.Core
Obtain signatures and payments, or arrange for recipients to make payments.Supplemental
Check with home offices after completed deliveries to confirm deliveries and collections and to receive instructions for other deliveries.Supplemental
Use telephone to deliver verbal messages.Supplemental
Open, sort, and distribute incoming mail.Supplemental
Perform general office or clerical work, such as filing materials, operating duplicating machines, or running errands.Supplemental
Unload goods from large trucks, and load them onto smaller delivery vehicles.Supplemental

Occupation information

Employment outlook (BLS)

Employment, 2025
229K
Projected employment, 2035
247K
Change (2025–35)
+8%
Median annual wage, 2025
$39,200
Typical education needed for entry
High school diploma or equivalent
lowest $30,890median wage across 825 detailed occupations, BLS EP 2025–35highest $559,030

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2025–35 — Employment by detailed occupation, 2025 and projected 2035

Korea classification links (KSCO)

Links from the current release of the Korea Occupation Direct Crosswalk v1.1, made by AI Changing Work. Relation values are read from the O*NET-SOC occupation side.

KSCO codeKSCO titleRelationStatus
92230늘찬배달원Same scopeconfirmed
92220택배원Overlapping, not the sameconfirmed
92299그 외 배달원Overlapping, not the sameconfirmed
92242신문 정기배달원Related, not a matchconfirmed
92249그 외 정기배달원Related, not a matchconfirmed

Relation and status definitions(kr-direct v1.1)

ILO occupational description

AI Changing Work links the ISCO-08 unit groups below to this occupation by applying the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics crosswalks (2018 SOC to 2010 SOC, 2010 SOC to ISCO-08) as published, without case-by-case selection; each link may be whole or partial.

  • ISCO-08 4412Mail Carriers and Sorting Clerks
  • ISCO-08 8321Motorcycle Drivers
  • ISCO-08 9331Hand and Pedal Vehicle Drivers
  • ISCO-08 9621Messengers, Package Deliverers and Luggage Porters

Sources: ILO ISCO-08 — details: Credits

ESCO occupational vocabulary

Each entry below is matched to this occupation in the published ESCO-O*NET Crosswalk (version 1, 2022). The match types are that crosswalk's; the wording is AI Changing Work's.

  • bicycle courierESCO 9331.1This occupation is broader

    Bicycle couriers collect and deliver packages and mail by bicycle.

  • motorcycle delivery personESCO 8321.1This occupation is broader

    Motorcycle delivery persons perform the transportation of all kinds of packets containing objects, loose pieces, prepared meals, medications and documents that require special treatment in terms of urgency, value or fragility. They transport and deliver their packets by motorcycle.

  • postman/postwomanESCO 4412.2This occupation is broader

    Postmen/Postwomen deliver mails and parcel posts to residences and businesses. They perform mail delivery and collect signatures from the recipients. They perform other duties in connection with mail services from post offices or related organisations.

Source: European Commission, DG EMPL — ESCO API 2026-08-08 (bridge v1.2.1)

License: CC BY 4.0 (EU Reuse Notice)

View original

ESCO reuse terms and the modification notice are in Credits.

France classification links (ROME)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and ROME 4.0 job profiles, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side. Links marked “provisional” were adopted on the judgments of two judges from the same model family (Claude) alone, or by an operator rule applied to their judgments, so they rest on weaker evidence than confirmed links.

ROME codeROME title (French)Relation
N4104Coursier / CoursièreThis occupation is narrowerprovisional
J1311Transporteur / Transporteuse de produits de santéThis occupation is broaderprovisional
M1615Distributeur / Distributrice de prospectus et imprimésRelated, not a match
M1603Facteur / FactriceRelated, not a matchprovisional
M1618Agent / Agente de liaison courrierRelated, not a matchprovisional

Source: France Travail — Répertoire Opérationnel des Métiers et des Emplois (ROME 4.0), version 61, last updated 15 June 2026 (https://www.data.gouv.fr/datasets/repertoire-operationnel-des-metiers-et-des-emplois-rome). Licence Ouverte 2.0.

ROME codes and titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET-SOC occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not a France Travail correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: fr-direct v1)

Spain classification links (CNO-11)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and CNO-11 occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.

CNO-11 codeCNO-11 title (Spanish)Relation
8440Conductores de motocicletas y ciclomotoresThis occupation is broaderprovisional
4221Empleados de servicios de correos (excepto empleados de mostrador)Overlapping, not the same
9433Repartidores, recadistas y mensajeros a pieOverlapping, not the same

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), National Classification of Occupations 2011 (CNO-11, Royal Decree 1591/2010) — www.ine.es · Licensed CC BY 4.0. CNO-11 codes and Spanish titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not an INE correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: es-direct v1)

Germany classification links (KldB)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and KldB occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.

KldB codeKldB title (German)Relation
52182Fahrzeugführer/innen im Straßenverkehr (sonstige spezifische Tätigkeitsangabe) - fachlich ausgerichtete TätigkeitenOverlapping, not the sameprovisional
51321Berufe für Post- und Zustelldienste - Helfer-/AnlerntätigkeitenRelated, not a match
51322Berufe für Post- und Zustelldienste - fachlich ausgerichtete TätigkeitenRelated, not a match
73231Berufe in der Steuerverwaltung - Helfer-/AnlerntätigkeitenRelated, not a matchprovisional

Source: © Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit — Klassifikation der Berufe 2010 – überarbeitete Fassung 2020, https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de. KldB codes and titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own mapping (eigene Zuordnung) and are not a Bundesagentur für Arbeit correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: de-direct v1)

Japan classification links (JSCO)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and JSCO occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.

JSCO codeJSCO title (Japanese)Relation
705配達員This occupation is narrower

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), Japan Standard Occupational Classification (Dec. 2009, MIC Notification No. 555). JSCO codes and Japanese titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not a MIC correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: jp-direct v1)

Sources, licenses and AI Changing Work's modification and translation notices for this page: Credits & sources