Bus Drivers, School

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

O*NET-SOC code: 53-3051.00

Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.

Data source: BLSPublished: 2026-08
Moderate· relative
LowFour relative bandsVery high
Group-level value
Scale, basis and source
Four relative bands (Low / Moderate / High / Very high)
831 detailed occupations in the BLS Employment Projections table. Assigned per National Employment Matrix (NEM) code, so occupations sharing a NEM code carry the same band
Source dataset (XLSX download)
Data source: AnthropicPublished: 2026-03
0.000
0.000Range of values carried here0.745
Scale, basis and source
Observed exposure index, 0–1 as published
Mapped onto O*NET tasks
Published per SOC 2018 occupation; every O*NET occupation with the same SOC 2018 code carries this value
Source dataset (CSV download)
Data source: ILOPublished: 2025
0.18
0.09Range of values carried here0.70
Group-level value
Scale, basis and source
Generative AI exposure index, 0–1 as published
Published per ISCO-08 unit group. Linked to this occupation, wholly or in part, by applying U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics crosswalks (ISCO-08 to 2010 SOC, 2010 SOC to 2018 SOC) as published
Source dataset (PDF download)

What kind of figure this source publishes

The BLS category is a relative rank, not an absolute level, and it is not a first-hand measurement: it groups an occupation's percentile ranks across several published studies into four bands. It is not an employment or wage forecast, not a probability of adoption, and it does not separate automation from augmentation.

Task-level exposure

Exposed tasks only

17 rated tasks · 6 tasks with β ≥ 0.5 (35.3%)

β = direct exposure (E1) + 0.5 × exposure when tools are available (E2), per the source repository's definition.

Source unit: O*NET 27.2 tasks → O*NET 31.0 occupation code
All rated tasks are in the O*NET 31.0 task list.

Source: OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" exposure rubric
Release: gh-main-0471612
License: MIT License, Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI

Values in this tab are predicted labels, not observations. Eloundou et al. (2023) published two rating regimes — human raters and GPT-4 — and the β shown here is derived from the GPT-4 rater basis alone; the same task can take a different value under the other regime. The unit and the meaning differ from the observed shares (%) in the other tabs, so do not place them on the same axis.

Task (O*NET 27.2)	βE1 + 0.5 × E2
Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures. O*NET Task ID 23721	1.0
Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption. O*NET Task ID 23725	1.0
Record bus routes. O*NET Task ID 23727	1.0
Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios. O*NET Task ID 23730	1.0
Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration. O*NET Task ID 23731	1.0
Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions. O*NET Task ID 23726	0.5
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order. O*NET Task ID 23715	0.0
Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner. O*NET Task ID 23716	0.0
Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities. O*NET Task ID 23717	0.0
Escort small children across roads and highways. O*NET Task ID 23718	0.0
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops. O*NET Task ID 23719	0.0
Keep bus interiors clean for students. O*NET Task ID 23720	0.0
Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety. O*NET Task ID 23722	0.0
Make minor repairs to vehicles. O*NET Task ID 23723	0.0
Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules. O*NET Task ID 23724	0.0
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort. O*NET Task ID 23728	0.0
Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs. O*NET Task ID 23729	0.0

β = E1 + 0.5 × E2 · E1 = tasks where direct LLM access alone cuts time by at least 50%, E2 = tasks where software built on top of an LLM cuts time by at least 50%. Values take only 0 / 0.5 / 1.0.

Data sources & licenses — O*NET®, Eloundou et al. (2023): see full notices on the Credits page

All O*NET 31.0 task statements (17)

All O*NET 31.0 task statements for this occupation (English, as published; task type core or supplemental). Exposure values are not listed here; they are in the table above, next to each task statement as worded in the O*NET version each source used.

Task (O*NET 31.0)	Type
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.	Core
Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.	Core
Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.	Core
Escort small children across roads and highways.	Core
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.	Core
Keep bus interiors clean for students.	Core
Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.	Core
Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.	Core
Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.	Core
Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.	Core
Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.	Core
Record bus routes.	Core
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.	Core
Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.	Core
Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.	Core
Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration.	Core
Make minor repairs to vehicles.	Supplemental

Anthropic, "What work can robots do?"2026-09

1.14/ 3· Robot exposure index

0 none3 unstructured settings

Scale, basis and source

Each physical task is graded 0–3 by the setting in which robots that have been deployed, sold or demonstrated could do it (0 none · 1 purpose-built robot settings such as a fenced machine cell or a bottling line · 2 structured facilities such as a hospital pharmacy or a container port · 3 unstructured settings such as a private home or a construction site), and the grades are averaged by share of working time

Physical tasks among this occupation's O*NET 29.3 tasks

Anthropic estimated the grades and time shares with Claude Opus 5 using web search, as of 2026.

Source dataset

The robot exposure index is a different measure from the AI exposure figures on this site and cannot be added to or compared with them. It does not measure actual adoption or cost, and 0 also covers occupations with no physical tasks.

Tier of each physical task

Robot environment tiers (E0–E3)

E0 noneDetails
Rated not doable by robots that have been deployed, sold or demonstrated, even in a purpose-built setting
E1 purpose-built robot settingsDetails
Rated doable in a setting built around the machine, such as a fenced machine cell or a bottling line
E2 structured facilitiesDetails
Rated doable in a human work facility that an institution keeps to a working standard, such as a hospital pharmacy or a container port
E3 unstructured settingsDetails
Rated doable in a setting that no institution keeps to a working standard, such as a private home or a construction site

Only tasks classified as physical are listed; other tasks have no tier in the source.

Task (O*NET 29.3)	Robot environment tier
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.	E0 none
Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.	E3 unstructured settings
Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.	E2 structured facilities
Escort small children across roads and highways.	E0 none
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.	E2 structured facilities
Keep bus interiors clean for students.	E2 structured facilities
Make minor repairs to vehicles.	E1 purpose-built robot settings
Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.	E1 purpose-built robot settings
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.	E2 structured facilities

Employment outlook (BLS)

Employment, 2025: 397K
Projected employment, 2035: 400K
Change (2025–35): +0.7%
Median annual wage, 2025: $47,920
Typical education needed for entry: High school diploma or equivalent

lowest $30,890median wage across 825 detailed occupations, BLS EP 2025–35highest $559,030

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2025–35 — Employment by detailed occupation, 2025 and projected 2035

Korea classification links (KSCO)

Links from the current release of the Korea Occupation Direct Crosswalk v1.1, made by AI Changing Work. Relation values are read from the O*NET-SOC occupation side.

KSCO code	KSCO title	Relation	Status
87229	그 외 버스 운전원	This occupation is narrower	confirmed

Relation and status definitions(kr-direct v1.1)

ILO occupational description

AI Changing Work links the ISCO-08 unit groups below to this occupation by applying the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics crosswalks (2018 SOC to 2010 SOC, 2010 SOC to ISCO-08) as published, without case-by-case selection; each link may be whole or partial.

ISCO-08 8331Bus and Tram Drivers

The definition, tasks and examples below are the ILO's description of that unit group, not of this occupation.

Bus and tram drivers drive and tend buses or street tramcars to transport passengers, mail or goods.

Tasks

(a) driving and tending motor buses, trolley buses or motor coaches to transport local or long-distance passengers, mail or goods;
(b) driving and tending street tramcars transporting passengers;
(c) opening and closing doors before or after passengers board or alight;
(d) assisting passengers with luggage;
(e) controlling lighting, heating and ventilation on buses and trams;
(f) observing traffic to ensure safe progress;
(g) collecting fares or verifying passenger has necessary ticket.

Example occupations

Bus driver · Motor coach driver · Tram driver

Sources: ILO ISCO-08 — details: Credits

ESCO occupational vocabulary

Each entry below is matched to this occupation in the published ESCO-O*NET Crosswalk (version 1, 2022). The match types are that crosswalk's; the wording is AI Changing Work's.

bus driverESCO 8331.1This occupation is narrower
Bus drivers operate buses or coaches, take fares, and look after passengers.
trolley bus driverESCO 8331.1.1Overlapping, not the same
Trolley bus drivers operate trolley buses or guided buses, take fares, and look after passengers.

Source: European Commission, DG EMPL — ESCO API 2026-08-08 (bridge v1.2.1)

License: CC BY 4.0 (EU Reuse Notice)

View original

ESCO reuse terms and the modification notice are in Credits.

France classification links (ROME)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and ROME 4.0 job profiles, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side. Links marked “provisional” were adopted on the judgments of two judges from the same model family (Claude) alone, or by an operator rule applied to their judgments, so they rest on weaker evidence than confirmed links.

ROME code	ROME title (French)	Relation
N4109	Conducteur / Conductrice d'autocar ligne régulière	This occupation is narrowerprovisional
N4103	Conducteur / Conductrice de bus	Related, not a matchprovisional
N4128	Conducteur / Conductrice de navettes moins de 10 places	Related, not a matchprovisional

Source: France Travail — Répertoire Opérationnel des Métiers et des Emplois (ROME 4.0), version 61, last updated 15 June 2026 (https://www.data.gouv.fr/datasets/repertoire-operationnel-des-metiers-et-des-emplois-rome). Licence Ouverte 2.0.

ROME codes and titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET-SOC occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not a France Travail correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: fr-direct v1)

Spain classification links (CNO-11)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and CNO-11 occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.

CNO-11 code	CNO-11 title (Spanish)	Relation
8420	Conductores de autobuses y tranvías	This occupation is narrowerprovisional

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), National Classification of Occupations 2011 (CNO-11, Royal Decree 1591/2010) — www.ine.es · Licensed CC BY 4.0. CNO-11 codes and Spanish titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not an INE correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: es-direct v1)

Germany classification links (KldB)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and KldB occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.

KldB code	KldB title (German)	Relation
52132	Bus- und Straßenbahnfahrer/innen - fachlich ausgerichtete Tätigkeiten	This occupation is narrowerprovisional

Source: © Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit — Klassifikation der Berufe 2010 – überarbeitete Fassung 2020, https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de. KldB codes and titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own mapping (eigene Zuordnung) and are not a Bundesagentur für Arbeit correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: de-direct v1)

Japan classification links (JSCO)

AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and JSCO occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.

JSCO code	JSCO title (Japanese)	Relation
611	バス運転者	This occupation is narrowerprovisional

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), Japan Standard Occupational Classification (Dec. 2009, MIC Notification No. 555). JSCO codes and Japanese titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not a MIC correspondence.

(AI Changing Work link release: jp-direct v1)

Sources, licenses and AI Changing Work's modification and translation notices for this page: Credits & sources