Cost Estimators
United States · BLS Employment Projections 2024–34 (figures for SOC 13-1051 occupational group)
AI exposure in published research
Figures below are reproduced from external datasets without modification. Where a dataset does not cover this occupation, the value is shown as — rather than as zero.
Data provider: OpenAI · "GPTs are GPTs"
Time basis: 2023 baselineex-ante estimate
Scored against GPT-4-generation capability.
- Human rater basis
- 48.1%
- GPT-4 rater basis
- 50.0%
β = direct exposure (E1) + 0.5 × exposure when tools are available (E2), per the source repository's definition.
14 rated tasks · 14 tasks with β ≥ 0.5 (100.0%)
- Version:
- gh-main-0471612
- License:
- MIT License · Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI
Data provider: Anthropic Economic Index
Time basis: Published 2026-03-05composite index
- Observed exposure
- 0.0%
Theoretical exposure index weighted by measured Claude usage, per the original report's definition.
9 tasks · usage observed in 0 · mean 0.0%
Data: Anthropic Economic Index — labor_market_impacts, CC-BY, https://huggingface.co/datasets/Anthropic/EconomicIndex
AI Changing Work uses Anthropic Economic Index data under CC-BY; Anthropic does not endorse or sponsor this site or its analyses.
- Version:
- hf-lmi-2026-03
- License:
- CC BY 4.0
- Observation period:
- — (not applicable to this release)
- Model:
- — (not stated by the source)
- Definition source:
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts
2023 prediction vs observation-based index published 2026-03-05
One card (GPTs are GPTs) is a 2023 estimate of what AI could theoretically do; the other (Anthropic Economic Index) is built from observed usage and was published on 2026-03-05 — that is its publication date, not the period it observed. They measure different things, so the two figures cannot be added, averaged, or ranked against each other. The older figure is kept here as a baseline for comparison rather than removed.
Caution: the Anthropic figures — observed exposure and task penetration — take the Eloundou β as one of their inputs. The two sides resembling each other is therefore not evidence that the earlier prediction came true; reading it that way is circular reasoning.
The Anthropic figures are measured on Claude users, who are not the whole economy and not the whole workforce.
The mapping of O*NET tasks and occupation codes was performed by AI Changing Work. The source figures themselves were not modified.
These indices are not forecasts. Which point in time each one belongs to is stated on the badge on its card.
Task Breakdown
- Analyze blueprints and specifications for cost calculations
- Compile and compare material and labor cost data
- Consult with clients and contractors on project scope
- Prepare detailed bid documents and proposals
About This Occupation
If you work as a Cost Estimator, AI is reshaping your profession. With an automation risk of 46/100 and overall exposure at 56%, this role faces high transformation. The highest-impact area is compile and compare material and labor cost data at 88% automation. This is classified as a 'mixed' role. BLS projects -4% growth through 2034. Estimators who leverage AI-powered cost modeling tools can redirect their expertise toward complex project negotiations and risk assessment.
ISCO-08 classification
Business Services Agents Not Elsewhere Classified
Definition
ILO original text (English)
This unit group covers business services agents not classified elsewhere in Minor Group 333: Business Services Agents. For instance, the group includes those who establish business contacts, sell business services such as advertising space in the media, arrange contracts for performances of athletes, entertainers and artists, for the publication of books, the production of plays, or the recording, performance and sale of music, sell property and goods by auction and who design and organize package and group tours.
Definition & vocabulary source
Source: International Labour Organization (ILO) — ISCO-08 Structure
License: ILO CC BY 4.0
Official occupational information
- ONET13-1011.00
Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes
Represent and promote artists, performers, and athletes in dealings with current or prospective employers. May handle contract negotiation and other business matters for clients.
View original - ONET13-1051.00
Cost Estimators
Prepare cost estimates for product manufacturing, construction projects, or services to aid management in bidding on or determining price of product or service. May specialize according to particular service performed or type of product manufactured.
View original - ONET13-2054.00
Financial Risk Specialists
Analyze and measure exposure to credit and market risk threatening the assets, earning capacity, or economic state of an organization. May make recommendations to limit risk.
View original - ONET13-2099.01
Financial Quantitative Analysts
Develop quantitative techniques to inform securities investing, equities investing, pricing, or valuation of financial instruments. Develop mathematical or statistical models for risk management, asset optimization, pricing, or relative value analysis.
View original - ONET13-2099.04
Fraud Examiners, Investigators and Analysts
Obtain evidence, take statements, produce reports, and testify to findings regarding resolution of fraud allegations. May coordinate fraud detection and prevention activities.
View original - ONET41-1012.00
First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of sales workers other than retail sales workers. May perform duties such as budgeting, accounting, and personnel work, in addition to supervisory duties.
View original - ONET41-3011.00
Advertising Sales Agents
Sell or solicit advertising space, time, or media in publications, signage, TV, radio, or Internet establishments or public spaces.
View original
Frequently Asked Questions
The Anthropic Economic Index puts observed exposure at 0.0%. The OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" rubric puts occupation-level β at 48.1% under human raters. Both figures are reproduced from published research without modification.
They come from two published datasets: the Anthropic Economic Index (labor_market_impacts, CC BY 4.0) and the OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" exposure rubric (MIT License, Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI). AI Changing Work maps them onto O*NET occupation and task codes and does not calculate exposure scores of its own. AI Changing Work uses Anthropic Economic Index data under CC-BY; Anthropic does not endorse or sponsor this site or its analyses.
No. They are a diagnosis of exposure as measured at the time each source dataset was published. AI Changing Work publishes no prediction of future automation or job displacement for this occupation.
Recent Changes Affecting This Occupation
Apr 2026: ATE 0.42 by 2027 in SF Bay Tier 1. Quantitative analysis roles with structured task templates show high workflow coverage for agentic AI.
[Source: arXiv 2604.00186 (Gupta & Kumar, 2026)]Mar 2026: Evergreen blog post published analyzing AI automation risk for cost estimators
[Source: AI Changing Work Blog]