Product Managers
United States · BLS Employment Projections 2024–34 (figures for SOC 11-2021 occupational group)
AI exposure in published research
Figures below are reproduced from external datasets without modification. Where a dataset does not cover this occupation, the value is shown as — rather than as zero.
Data provider: OpenAI · "GPTs are GPTs"
Time basis: 2023 baselineex-ante estimate
Scored against GPT-4-generation capability.
- Human rater basis
- 57.8%
- GPT-4 rater basis
- 50.0%
β = direct exposure (E1) + 0.5 × exposure when tools are available (E2), per the source repository's definition.
20 rated tasks · 19 tasks with β ≥ 0.5 (95.0%)
- Version:
- gh-main-0471612
- License:
- MIT License · Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI
Data provider: Anthropic Economic Index
Time basis: Published 2026-03-05composite index
- Observed exposure
- 31.9%
Theoretical exposure index weighted by measured Claude usage, per the original report's definition.
18 tasks · usage observed in 5 · mean 21.7%
Data: Anthropic Economic Index — labor_market_impacts, CC-BY, https://huggingface.co/datasets/Anthropic/EconomicIndex
AI Changing Work uses Anthropic Economic Index data under CC-BY; Anthropic does not endorse or sponsor this site or its analyses.
- Version:
- hf-lmi-2026-03
- License:
- CC BY 4.0
- Observation period:
- — (not applicable to this release)
- Model:
- — (not stated by the source)
- Definition source:
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts
2023 prediction vs observation-based index published 2026-03-05
One card (GPTs are GPTs) is a 2023 estimate of what AI could theoretically do; the other (Anthropic Economic Index) is built from observed usage and was published on 2026-03-05 — that is its publication date, not the period it observed. They measure different things, so the two figures cannot be added, averaged, or ranked against each other. The older figure is kept here as a baseline for comparison rather than removed.
Caution: the Anthropic figures — observed exposure and task penetration — take the Eloundou β as one of their inputs. The two sides resembling each other is therefore not evidence that the earlier prediction came true; reading it that way is circular reasoning.
The Anthropic figures are measured on Claude users, who are not the whole economy and not the whole workforce.
The mapping of O*NET tasks and occupation codes was performed by AI Changing Work. The source figures themselves were not modified.
These indices are not forecasts. Which point in time each one belongs to is stated on the badge on its card.
Task Breakdown
- Conduct market research and competitive analysis
- Define product requirements and user stories
- Prioritize product backlog and manage roadmap
- Analyze product metrics and user feedback
- Coordinate cross-functional teams and stakeholders
About This Occupation
If you work as a Product Manager, AI is significantly reshaping your profession. With an automation risk of 26/100 and overall exposure at 57%, this role faces high transformation. The highest-impact area is analyze product metrics and user feedback at 72% automation. This is classified as an 'augment' role — AI enhances your analytical capabilities while strategic decision-making remains human-driven. BLS projects +8% growth through 2034. Product managers who leverage AI for data analysis and market research will have a competitive advantage.
ISCO-08 classification
Sales and Marketing Managers
Definition
ILO original text (English)
Sales and marketing managers plan, direct and coordinate the sales and marketing activities of an enterprise or organization, or of enterprises that provide sales and marketing services to other enterprises and organizations.
Definition & vocabulary source
Source: International Labour Organization (ILO) — ISCO-08 Structure
License: ILO CC BY 4.0
Official occupational information
- ONET11-2021.00
Marketing Managers
Plan, direct, or coordinate marketing policies and programs, such as determining the demand for products and services offered by a firm and its competitors, and identify potential customers. Develop pricing strategies with the goal of maximizing the firm's profits or share of the market while ensuring the firm's customers are satisfied. Oversee product development or monitor trends that indicate the need for new products and services.
View original - ONET11-2022.00
Sales Managers
Plan, direct, or coordinate the actual distribution or movement of a product or service to the customer. Coordinate sales distribution by establishing sales territories, quotas, and goals and establish training programs for sales representatives. Analyze sales statistics gathered by staff to determine sales potential and inventory requirements and monitor the preferences of customers.
View original
Frequently Asked Questions
The Anthropic Economic Index puts observed exposure at 31.9%. The OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" rubric puts occupation-level β at 57.8% under human raters. Both figures are reproduced from published research without modification.
They come from two published datasets: the Anthropic Economic Index (labor_market_impacts, CC BY 4.0) and the OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" exposure rubric (MIT License, Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI). AI Changing Work maps them onto O*NET occupation and task codes and does not calculate exposure scores of its own. AI Changing Work uses Anthropic Economic Index data under CC-BY; Anthropic does not endorse or sponsor this site or its analyses.
No. They are a diagnosis of exposure as measured at the time each source dataset was published. AI Changing Work publishes no prediction of future automation or job displacement for this occupation.
Recent Changes Affecting This Occupation
Mar 2026: Evergreen blog post published: analysis of why product managers have one of the lowest automation risks (26%) in tech despite 57% AI exposure, focusing on cross-domain judgment.
[Source: AI Changing Work Blog]Feb 2026: HBR 8-month field study: AI tools cause task expansion for PMs — product managers now write prototype code with AI assistants, absorbing engineering tasks. Saved time is immediately refilled with expanded responsibilities.
[Source: HBR - Ranganathan & Ye (Feb 2026)]