Bakers
Production Occupations- O*NET-SOC code
- 51-3011.00
Mix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.
- Data source: BLSPublished: 2026-08
Moderate· relative
LowFour relative bandsVery highGroup-level value
Scale, basis and source
Four relative bands (Low / Moderate / High / Very high)
831 detailed occupations in the BLS Employment Projections table. Assigned per National Employment Matrix (NEM) code, so occupations sharing a NEM code carry the same band
- Data source: AnthropicPublished: 2026-03
0.000
0.000Range of values carried here0.745Scale, basis and source
Observed exposure index, 0–1 as published
Mapped onto O*NET tasks
Published per SOC 2018 occupation; every O*NET occupation with the same SOC 2018 code carries this value
- Data source: ILOPublished: 2025
0.17
0.09Range of values carried here0.70Group-level value
Scale, basis and source
Generative AI exposure index, 0–1 as published
Published per ISCO-08 unit group. Linked to this occupation, wholly or in part, by applying U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics crosswalks (ISCO-08 to 2010 SOC, 2010 SOC to 2018 SOC) as published
What kind of figure this source publishes
The BLS category is a relative rank, not an absolute level, and it is not a first-hand measurement: it groups an occupation's percentile ranks across several published studies into four bands. It is not an employment or wage forecast, not a probability of adoption, and it does not separate automation from augmentation.
Task-level exposure
Show 16 hidden tasks18 rated tasks · 7 tasks with β ≥ 0.5 (38.9%)
β = direct exposure (E1) + 0.5 × exposure when tools are available (E2), per the source repository's definition.
- Source unit: O*NET 27.2 tasks → O*NET 31.0 occupation code
- All rated tasks are in the O*NET 31.0 task list.
- Source
- OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" exposure rubric
- Release
- gh-main-0471612
- License
- MIT License, Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI
| Task (O*NET 20.1) | Claude.aiRaw / share % |
|---|---|
Develop new recipes for baked goods.51-3011.00 | 0.007469.9 |
Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked.51-3011.00 | 0.003230.1 |
Values in this tab are predicted labels, not observations. Eloundou et al. (2023) published two rating regimes — human raters and GPT-4 — and the β shown here is derived from the GPT-4 rater basis alone; the same task can take a different value under the other regime. The unit and the meaning differ from the observed shares (%) in the other tabs, so do not place them on the same axis.
| Task (O*NET 27.2) | βE1 + 0.5 × E2 |
|---|---|
Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked.O*NET Task ID 11922 | 1.0 |
Prepare or maintain inventory or production records.O*NET Task ID 11927 | 1.0 |
Develop new recipes for baked goods.O*NET Task ID 11931 | 1.0 |
Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries.O*NET Task ID 11925 | 0.5 |
Direct or coordinate bakery deliveries.O*NET Task ID 11928 | 0.5 |
Order or receive supplies or equipment.O*NET Task ID 11929 | 0.5 |
Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods.O*NET Task ID 20819 | 0.5 |
β = E1 + 0.5 × E2 · E1 = tasks where direct LLM access alone cuts time by at least 50%, E2 = tasks where software built on top of an LLM cuts time by at least 50%. Values take only 0 / 0.5 / 1.0.
Data sources & licenses — O*NET®, Anthropic Economic Index, Eloundou et al. (2023): see full notices on the Credits page
All O*NET 31.0 task statements (18)
All O*NET 31.0 task statements for this occupation (English, as published; task type core or supplemental). Exposure values are not listed here; they are in the table above, next to each task statement as worded in the O*NET version each source used.
| Task (O*NET 31.0) | Type |
|---|---|
| Observe color of products being baked, and adjust oven temperatures, humidity, or conveyor speeds accordingly. | Core |
| Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking. | Core |
| Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery. | Core |
| Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers. | Core |
| Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products. | Core |
| Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills. | Core |
| Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met. | Core |
| Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked. | Core |
| Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes. | Core |
| Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary. | Core |
| Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries. | Core |
| Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions. | Core |
| Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods. | Core |
| Prepare or maintain inventory or production records. | Supplemental |
| Direct or coordinate bakery deliveries. | Supplemental |
| Order or receive supplies or equipment. | Supplemental |
| Operate slicing or wrapping machines. | Supplemental |
| Develop new recipes for baked goods. | Supplemental |
0.86/ 3· Robot exposure index
Scale, basis and source
Each physical task is graded 0–3 by the setting in which robots that have been deployed, sold or demonstrated could do it (0 none · 1 purpose-built robot settings such as a fenced machine cell or a bottling line · 2 structured facilities such as a hospital pharmacy or a container port · 3 unstructured settings such as a private home or a construction site), and the grades are averaged by share of working time
Physical tasks among this occupation's O*NET 29.3 tasks
Anthropic estimated the grades and time shares with Claude Opus 5 using web search, as of 2026.
The robot exposure index is a different measure from the AI exposure figures on this site and cannot be added to or compared with them. It does not measure actual adoption or cost, and 0 also covers occupations with no physical tasks.
Tier of each physical task
Robot environment tiers (E0–E3)
E0 noneDetails
Rated not doable by robots that have been deployed, sold or demonstrated, even in a purpose-built setting
E1 purpose-built robot settingsDetails
Rated doable in a setting built around the machine, such as a fenced machine cell or a bottling line
E2 structured facilitiesDetails
Rated doable in a human work facility that an institution keeps to a working standard, such as a hospital pharmacy or a container port
E3 unstructured settingsDetails
Rated doable in a setting that no institution keeps to a working standard, such as a private home or a construction site
Only tasks classified as physical are listed; other tasks have no tier in the source.
| Task (O*NET 29.3) | Robot environment tier |
|---|---|
| Observe color of products being baked, and adjust oven temperatures, humidity, or conveyor speeds accordingly. | E2 structured facilities |
| Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary. | E0 none |
| Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Order or receive supplies or equipment. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Operate slicing or wrapping machines. | E1 purpose-built robot settings |
| Develop new recipes for baked goods. | E0 none |
Occupation information
Employment outlook (BLS)
- Employment, 2025
- 262K
- Projected employment, 2035
- 277K
- Change (2025–35)
- +5.5%
- Median annual wage, 2025
- $37,160
- Typical education needed for entry
- No formal educational credential
Korea classification links (KSCO)
Links from the current release of the Korea Occupation Direct Crosswalk v1.1, made by AI Changing Work. Relation values are read from the O*NET-SOC occupation side.
| KSCO code | KSCO title | Relation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71010 | 제빵사 및 제과원 | Same scope | confirmed |
| 71020 | 떡 제조원 | Related, not a match | confirmed |
Relation and status definitions(kr-direct v1.1)
ILO occupational description
AI Changing Work links the ISCO-08 unit groups below to this occupation by applying the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics crosswalks (2018 SOC to 2010 SOC, 2010 SOC to ISCO-08) as published, without case-by-case selection; each link may be whole or partial.
- ISCO-08 7512Bakers, Pastry-cooks and Confectionery Makers
The definition, tasks and examples below are the ILO's description of that unit group, not of this occupation.
Bakers, pastry-cooks and confectionery makers make various kinds of bread, cakes and other flour products, as well as handmade chocolate and sugar confectionery.
Tasks
- (a) making bread, cakes, biscuits, pastries, pies and other flour products;
- (b) making handmade confectionery from mixtures of sugar, chocolate and other ingredients using hand tools and some machines;
- (c) combining measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending or cooking machinery;
- (d) checking the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met;
- (e) applying glazes, icings or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes;
- (f) checking the cleanliness of equipment and operation of premises before production runs to ensure compliance with occupational health and safety regulations;
- (g) monitoring oven temperatures and product appearance to determine baking times;
- (h) coordinating the forming, loading, baking, unloading, de-panning and cooling of batches of bread, rolls, pastry and confectionary products.
Example occupations
Baker · Chocolate maker · Confectioner · Pastry-cook
Sources: ILO ISCO-08 — details: Credits
ESCO occupational vocabulary
Each entry below is matched to this occupation in the published ESCO-O*NET Crosswalk (version 1, 2022). The match types are that crosswalk's; the wording is AI Changing Work's.
- bakerESCO 7512.1Same scope
Bakers make a wide range of breads, pastries, and other baked goods. They follow all the processes from receipt and storage of raw materials, preparation of raw materials for bread-making, measurement and mixing of ingredients into dough and proof. They tend ovens to bake products to an adequate temperature and time.
- confectionerESCO 7512.3This occupation is broader
Confectioners make a varied range of cakes, candies and other confectionery items for industrial purposes or for direct selling.
- pastry makerESCO 7512.5This occupation is broader
Pastry makers prepare and bake cakes, cookies, croissants, pies and alike products according to recipes.
- baking operatorESCO 8160.2Overlapping, not the same
Baking operators tend automatic reels or conveyor-type ovens to bake bread, pastries and other bakery products. They interpret work orders to determine the products and the quantities to be baked. They set the operational speed of conveyors, baking times, and temperatures. They supervise the baking process and maintain oven operations in control.
- head pastry chefESCO 3434.1.2.1Overlapping, not the same
Head pastry chefs manage pastry staff and ensure the preparation, cooking and presentation of desserts, sweet products and pastry products.
- pastry chefESCO 3434.1.2Overlapping, not the same
Pastry chefs are responsible for preparing, cooking and presenting desserts, sweet products and bakery products.
Source: European Commission, DG EMPL — ESCO API 2026-08-08 (bridge v1.2.1)
License: CC BY 4.0 (EU Reuse Notice)
ESCO reuse terms and the modification notice are in Credits.
France classification links (ROME)
AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and ROME 4.0 job profiles, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side. Links marked “provisional” were adopted on the judgments of two judges from the same model family (Claude) alone, or by an operator rule applied to their judgments, so they rest on weaker evidence than confirmed links.
| ROME code | ROME title (French) | Relation |
|---|---|---|
| D1102 | Boulanger / Boulangère | This occupation is broaderprovisional |
| D1104 | Pâtissier / Pâtissière | This occupation is broaderprovisional |
| D1108 | Chef boulanger / Cheffe boulangère | This occupation is broaderprovisional |
| D1120 | Tourier / Tourière | This occupation is broaderprovisional |
| H2108 | Boulanger pâtissier industriel / Boulangère pâtissière industrielle | This occupation is broaderprovisional |
| D1115 | Chocolatier / Chocolatière | Related, not a matchprovisional |
| D1117 | Chef pâtissier / Cheffe pâtissière | Related, not a matchprovisional |
| G1610 | Pâtissier / Pâtissière de restaurant | Related, not a matchprovisional |
Source: France Travail — Répertoire Opérationnel des Métiers et des Emplois (ROME 4.0), version 61, last updated 15 June 2026 (https://www.data.gouv.fr/datasets/repertoire-operationnel-des-metiers-et-des-emplois-rome). Licence Ouverte 2.0.
ROME codes and titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET-SOC occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not a France Travail correspondence.
(AI Changing Work link release: fr-direct v1)
Spain classification links (CNO-11)
AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and CNO-11 occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.
| CNO-11 code | CNO-11 title (Spanish) | Relation |
|---|---|---|
| 7703 | Panaderos, pasteleros y confiteros | This occupation is narrower |
| 8160 | Operadores de máquinas para elaborar productos alimenticios, bebidas y tabaco | Related, not a match |
Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), National Classification of Occupations 2011 (CNO-11, Royal Decree 1591/2010) — www.ine.es · Licensed CC BY 4.0. CNO-11 codes and Spanish titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not an INE correspondence.
(AI Changing Work link release: es-direct v1)
Germany classification links (KldB)
AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and KldB occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.
| KldB code | KldB title (German) | Relation |
|---|---|---|
| 29222 | Berufe in der Back- und Konditoreiwarenherstellung - fachlich ausgerichtete Tätigkeiten | Same scopeprovisional |
| 29201 | Berufe in der Lebensmittelherstellung (ohne Spezialisierung) - Helfer-/Anlerntätigkeiten | Related, not a matchprovisional |
Source: © Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit — Klassifikation der Berufe 2010 – überarbeitete Fassung 2020, https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de. KldB codes and titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own mapping (eigene Zuordnung) and are not a Bundesagentur für Arbeit correspondence.
(AI Changing Work link release: de-direct v1)
Japan classification links (JSCO)
AI Changing Work's links between this occupation and JSCO occupations, judged with AI models. Relations are read from this occupation's side.
| JSCO code | JSCO title (Japanese) | Relation |
|---|---|---|
| 533 | 食料品製造従事者 | This occupation is narrower |
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), Japan Standard Occupational Classification (Dec. 2009, MIC Notification No. 555). JSCO codes and Japanese titles are reproduced unchanged; the links to O*NET occupations are AI Changing Work's own judgment and are not a MIC correspondence.
(AI Changing Work link release: jp-direct v1)
Sources, licenses and AI Changing Work's modification and translation notices for this page: Credits & sources