Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators
United States · BLS Employment Projections 2024–34 (figures for SOC 23-1022 occupational group)
AI exposure in published research
Figures below are reproduced from external datasets without modification. Where a dataset does not cover this occupation, the value is shown as — rather than as zero.
Data provider: OpenAI · "GPTs are GPTs"
Time basis: 2023 baselineex-ante estimate
Scored against GPT-4-generation capability.
- Human rater basis
- 37.1%
- GPT-4 rater basis
- 50.0%
β = direct exposure (E1) + 0.5 × exposure when tools are available (E2), per the source repository's definition.
20 rated tasks · 18 tasks with β ≥ 0.5 (90.0%)
- Version:
- gh-main-0471612
- License:
- MIT License · Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI
Data provider: Anthropic Economic Index
Time basis: Published 2026-03-05composite index
- Observed exposure
- 24.3%
Theoretical exposure index weighted by measured Claude usage, per the original report's definition.
17 tasks · usage observed in 4 · mean 19.1%
Data: Anthropic Economic Index — labor_market_impacts, CC-BY, https://huggingface.co/datasets/Anthropic/EconomicIndex
AI Changing Work uses Anthropic Economic Index data under CC-BY; Anthropic does not endorse or sponsor this site or its analyses.
- Version:
- hf-lmi-2026-03
- License:
- CC BY 4.0
- Observation period:
- — (not applicable to this release)
- Model:
- — (not stated by the source)
- Definition source:
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts
2023 prediction vs observation-based index published 2026-03-05
One card (GPTs are GPTs) is a 2023 estimate of what AI could theoretically do; the other (Anthropic Economic Index) is built from observed usage and was published on 2026-03-05 — that is its publication date, not the period it observed. They measure different things, so the two figures cannot be added, averaged, or ranked against each other. The older figure is kept here as a baseline for comparison rather than removed.
Caution: the Anthropic figures — observed exposure and task penetration — take the Eloundou β as one of their inputs. The two sides resembling each other is therefore not evidence that the earlier prediction came true; reading it that way is circular reasoning.
The Anthropic figures are measured on Claude users, who are not the whole economy and not the whole workforce.
The mapping of O*NET tasks and occupation codes was performed by AI Changing Work. The source figures themselves were not modified.
These indices are not forecasts. Which point in time each one belongs to is stated on the badge on its card.
Task Breakdown
- Research case law and precedents
- Draft settlement proposals
- Conduct mediation sessions
- Evaluate dispute merits and evidence
About This Occupation
If you work as an Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators, AI is reshaping your profession. With an automation risk of 30/100 and overall exposure at 42%, this role faces medium transformation. The highest-impact area is research case law and precedents at 72% automation. This is classified as an 'augment' role. BLS projects +6% growth through 2034. Professionals who leverage AI for legal research will gain a significant competitive advantage while human judgment remains essential for dispute resolution.
ISCO-08 classification
Legal Professionals Not Elsewhere Classified
Definition
ILO original text (English)
This unit group covers legal professionals not classified elsewhere in Minor Group 261: Legal professionals. For instance, the group includes those who perform legal functions other than pleading or prosecuting cases or presiding over judicial proceedings.
Definition & vocabulary source
Source: International Labour Organization (ILO) — ISCO-08 Structure
License: ILO CC BY 4.0
Official occupational information
- ONET23-1022.00
Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators
Facilitate negotiation and conflict resolution through dialogue. Resolve conflicts outside of the court system by mutual consent of parties involved.
View original
Frequently Asked Questions
The Anthropic Economic Index puts observed exposure at 24.3%. The OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" rubric puts occupation-level β at 37.1% under human raters. Both figures are reproduced from published research without modification.
They come from two published datasets: the Anthropic Economic Index (labor_market_impacts, CC BY 4.0) and the OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" exposure rubric (MIT License, Copyright (c) 2024 OpenAI). AI Changing Work maps them onto O*NET occupation and task codes and does not calculate exposure scores of its own. AI Changing Work uses Anthropic Economic Index data under CC-BY; Anthropic does not endorse or sponsor this site or its analyses.
No. They are a diagnosis of exposure as measured at the time each source dataset was published. AI Changing Work publishes no prediction of future automation or job displacement for this occupation.
Recent Changes Affecting This Occupation
Mar 2026: Published evergreen blog post analyzing AI impact on mediators. Case law research at 72% automation while mediation sessions remain at 15%.
[Source: AIChanging.Work Blog]