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Bakers

Food Preparation & Servicevery lowaugment
Projected change (est.): ~+5%
Median Wage (est.): ~$34,000
Employment (est.): ~200K

Overall Exposure

8+4

2025 vs 2023

Theoretical Exposure

16

What AI could do

Observed Exposure

4

What AI actually does

Automation Risk Score

6

Displacement risk

3-Year Outlook (2025 → 2028)

Projected changes in AI automation metrics over the next 3 years based on estimated data.

Overall Exposure

8→14
+6

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Theoretical Exposure

16→25
+9

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Observed Exposure

4→7
+3

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Automation Risk

6→11
+5

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Exposure Metrics (2023 - 2028)

Task Breakdown

Mix and prepare dough
10%β 0
Monitor oven temperatures and baking times
30%β 0.5
Decorate and finish baked products
5%β 0
Manage inventory and order supplies
40%β 0.5

About This Occupation

If you work as a Bakers, AI is reshaping your profession. With an automation risk of 6/100 and overall exposure at 8%, this role faces very-low transformation. The highest-impact area is manage inventory and order supplies at 40% automation. This is classified as an 'augment' role. BLS projects +5% growth through 2034. Baking remains a deeply hands-on craft where creativity and tactile skill far outweigh algorithmic capability.

ISCO-08 classification

Unit group 7512ILO official

Bakers, Pastry-cooks and Confectionery Makers

Definition

ILO original text (English)

Bakers, pastry-cooks and confectionery makers make various kinds of bread, cakes and other flour products, as well as handmade chocolate and sugar confectionery.

Definition & vocabulary source

Source: International Labour Organization (ILO) — ISCO-08 Structure

License: ILO CC BY 4.0

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Official occupational information

  • ONET51-3011.00

    Bakers

    Mix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.

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Source: O*NET 30.2, U.S. DOL/ETA

License: CC BY 4.0

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Frequently Asked Questions

With an automation risk score of 6%, Bakers has a low risk of AI replacement. Most tasks in this role require skills that are difficult for AI to replicate, such as complex decision-making, physical dexterity, or deep interpersonal interaction. AI is more likely to serve as a supportive tool.

Our estimated AI automation risk score for Bakers is 6% for 2025. Estimated overall AI exposure is 8%, with 16% theoretical exposure and 4% observed exposure. The estimated risk trend from 2023 to 2025 is +3 points. All of these are model-generated estimates, not measurements.

The tasks with the highest automation potential for Bakers are: Manage inventory and order supplies (40%), Monitor oven temperatures and baking times (30%), Mix and prepare dough (10%). These rates are our own estimates of how much of each task current AI systems can handle. They are not measurements and are not taken from any external dataset.

We estimate a +5% employment change for Bakers between 2024 and 2034. This is our own estimate, not a figure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Combined with an estimated overall AI exposure of 8%, this occupation faces both traditional labor market shifts and AI-driven transformation. Workers should monitor both employment trends and AI capability growth.

Since AI primarily augments capabilities in this role, professionals in Bakers should embrace AI as a productivity multiplier. Focus on learning to use AI tools effectively, developing higher-order analytical and creative skills, and positioning yourself as someone who can leverage AI to deliver greater value.