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Commercial Divers

Transportation & Material Movinglowaugment
BLS 2024-34: +8%
Median Wage: $60,360
Employment: 4K

Overall Exposure

18+8

2025 vs 2023

Theoretical Exposure

34

What AI could do

Observed Exposure

10

What AI actually does

Automation Risk Score

14

Displacement risk

3-Year Outlook (2025 → 2028)

Projected changes in AI automation metrics over the next 3 years based on estimated data.

Overall Exposure

18→30
+12

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Theoretical Exposure

34→48
+14

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Observed Exposure

10→19
+9

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Automation Risk

14→23
+9

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Exposure Metrics (2023 - 2028)

Detailed Metrics Table

YearOverallTheoreticalObservedRiskData Type
2023102258actual
20241428711actual
202518341014actual
202622391317estimated
202726441620estimated
202830481923estimated

Task Breakdown

Inspect underwater structures and ship hulls for damage
20%β 0.5
Perform underwater welding and cutting operations
8%β 0
Operate remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) for deep-sea tasks
35%β 0.5
Conduct salvage and recovery operations
12%β 0
Document dive conditions and write inspection reports
45%β 0.5

About This Occupation

If you work as a Commercial Diver, AI has limited impact on your profession so far. With an automation risk of 14/100 and overall exposure at 18%, this role faces low transformation. The highest-impact area is document dive conditions and write inspection reports at 45% automation. This is classified as an 'augment' role. BLS projects +8% growth through 2034. The physically demanding and unpredictable underwater environment makes this one of the most automation-resistant occupations, though AI-assisted ROVs are gradually supplementing human divers for routine inspections.

Frequently Asked Questions

With an automation risk score of 14%, Commercial Divers has a low risk of AI replacement. Most tasks in this role require skills that are difficult for AI to replicate, such as complex decision-making, physical dexterity, or deep interpersonal interaction. AI is more likely to serve as a supportive tool.

The AI automation risk score for Commercial Divers is 14% (2025 data). Overall AI exposure is 18%, with 34% theoretical exposure and 10% observed exposure. The risk trend from 2023 to 2025 is +6 points.

The tasks with the highest automation potential for Commercial Divers are: Document dive conditions and write inspection reports (45%), Operate remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) for deep-sea tasks (35%), Inspect underwater structures and ship hulls for damage (20%). These rates reflect how much of each task current AI systems can handle, based on research data from Anthropic and academic sources.

The BLS projects +8% employment change for Commercial Divers from 2024 to 2034. Combined with an overall AI exposure of 18%, this occupation is experiencing both traditional labor market shifts and AI-driven transformation. Workers should monitor both employment trends and AI capability growth.

Since AI primarily augments capabilities in this role, professionals in Commercial Divers should embrace AI as a productivity multiplier. Focus on learning to use AI tools effectively, developing higher-order analytical and creative skills, and positioning yourself as someone who can leverage AI to deliver greater value.