All occupations
Export

Locomotive Engineers

Transportation & Material Movinglowaugment
Projected change (est.): ~+1%
Median Wage (est.): ~$75,000
Employment (est.): ~35K

Overall Exposure

15+7

2025 vs 2023

Theoretical Exposure

26

What AI could do

Observed Exposure

7

What AI actually does

Automation Risk Score

13

Displacement risk

3-Year Outlook (2025 → 2028)

Projected changes in AI automation metrics over the next 3 years based on estimated data.

Overall Exposure

15→27
+12

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Theoretical Exposure

26→41
+15

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Observed Exposure

7→16
+9

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Automation Risk

13→25
+12

2025 → 2028 (estimated)

Exposure Metrics (2023 - 2028)

Task Breakdown

Operate locomotive controls and monitor systems
30%β 0.5
Interpret train orders and signal indications
40%β 0.5
Conduct pre-departure safety inspections
20%β 0
Communicate with dispatchers and yard personnel
25%β 0.5

About This Occupation

If you work as a Locomotive Engineer, AI is reshaping your profession. With an automation risk of 13/100 and overall exposure at 15%, this role faces low transformation. The highest-impact area is interpret train orders and signal indications at 40% automation. This is classified as an 'augment' role. BLS projects +1% growth through 2034. While autonomous train technology is advancing, the safety-critical nature of rail operations and growing freight demand mean human engineers remain essential.

ISCO-08 classification

Unit group 8311ILO official

Locomotive Engine Drivers

Definition

ILO original text (English)

Locomotive engine drivers drive, or assist in driving, locomotive engines to transport passengers and freight.

Definition & vocabulary source

Source: International Labour Organization (ILO) — ISCO-08 Structure

License: ILO CC BY 4.0

View original

Official occupational information

  • ONET53-4011.00

    Locomotive Engineers

    Drive electric, diesel-electric, steam, or gas-turbine-electric locomotives to transport passengers or freight. Interpret train orders, electronic or manual signals, and railroad rules and regulations.

    View original
  • ONET53-4013.00

    Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers

    Drive switching or other locomotive or dinkey engines within railroad yard, industrial plant, quarry, construction project, or similar location.

    View original
  • ONET53-4041.00

    Subway and Streetcar Operators

    Operate subway or elevated suburban trains with no separate locomotive, or electric-powered streetcar, to transport passengers. May handle fares.

    View original

Source: O*NET 30.2, U.S. DOL/ETA

License: CC BY 4.0

View original

Frequently Asked Questions

With an automation risk score of 13%, Locomotive Engineers has a low risk of AI replacement. Most tasks in this role require skills that are difficult for AI to replicate, such as complex decision-making, physical dexterity, or deep interpersonal interaction. AI is more likely to serve as a supportive tool.

Our estimated AI automation risk score for Locomotive Engineers is 13% for 2025. Estimated overall AI exposure is 15%, with 26% theoretical exposure and 7% observed exposure. The estimated risk trend from 2023 to 2025 is +6 points. All of these are model-generated estimates, not measurements.

The tasks with the highest automation potential for Locomotive Engineers are: Interpret train orders and signal indications (40%), Operate locomotive controls and monitor systems (30%), Communicate with dispatchers and yard personnel (25%). These rates are our own estimates of how much of each task current AI systems can handle. They are not measurements and are not taken from any external dataset.

We estimate a +1% employment change for Locomotive Engineers between 2024 and 2034. This is our own estimate, not a figure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Combined with an estimated overall AI exposure of 15%, this occupation faces both traditional labor market shifts and AI-driven transformation. Workers should monitor both employment trends and AI capability growth.

Since AI primarily augments capabilities in this role, professionals in Locomotive Engineers should embrace AI as a productivity multiplier. Focus on learning to use AI tools effectively, developing higher-order analytical and creative skills, and positioning yourself as someone who can leverage AI to deliver greater value.