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Security Guards

Protective Servicelowaugment
BLS 2024-34: -5%
Median Wage: $35,900
Employment: 1.0M

Overall Exposure

22+6

2025 vs 2023

Theoretical Exposure

38

What AI could do

Observed Exposure

10

What AI actually does

Automation Risk Score

18

Displacement risk

3-Year Outlook (2025 โ†’ 2028)

Projected changes in AI automation metrics over the next 3 years based on estimated data.

Overall Exposure

22โ†’26
+4

2025 โ†’ 2028 (estimated)

Theoretical Exposure

38โ†’45
+7

2025 โ†’ 2028 (estimated)

Observed Exposure

10โ†’12
+2

2025 โ†’ 2028 (estimated)

Automation Risk

18โ†’21
+3

2025 โ†’ 2028 (estimated)

Exposure Metrics (2023 - 2028)

Detailed Metrics Table

YearOverallTheoreticalObservedRiskData Type
20231627713actual
20241933915actual
202522381018actual
202624411119estimated
202725431120estimated
202826451221estimated

Task Breakdown

Monitor surveillance systems
65%ฮฒ 1
Patrol premises
8%ฮฒ 0.5
Respond to incidents
5%ฮฒ 0.5

About This Occupation

If you work as a Security Guards, AI is reshaping your profession. With an automation risk of 18/100 and overall exposure at 22%, this role faces low transformation. The highest-impact area is monitor surveillance systems at 65% automation. This is classified as an 'augment' role. BLS projects -5% decline through 2034. Professionals who embrace AI tools will see their capabilities significantly amplified.

Frequently Asked Questions

With an automation risk score of 18%, Security Guards has a low risk of AI replacement. Most tasks in this role require skills that are difficult for AI to replicate, such as complex decision-making, physical dexterity, or deep interpersonal interaction. AI is more likely to serve as a supportive tool.

The AI automation risk score for Security Guards is 18% (2025 data). Overall AI exposure is 22%, with 38% theoretical exposure and 10% observed exposure. The risk trend from 2023 to 2025 is +5 points.

The tasks with the highest automation potential for Security Guards are: Monitor surveillance systems (65%), Patrol premises (8%), Respond to incidents (5%). These rates reflect how much of each task current AI systems can handle, based on research data from Anthropic and academic sources.

The BLS projects -5% employment change for Security Guards from 2024 to 2034. Combined with an overall AI exposure of 22%, this occupation is experiencing both traditional labor market shifts and AI-driven transformation. Workers should monitor both employment trends and AI capability growth.

Since AI primarily augments capabilities in this role, professionals in Security Guards should embrace AI as a productivity multiplier. Focus on learning to use AI tools effectively, developing higher-order analytical and creative skills, and positioning yourself as someone who can leverage AI to deliver greater value.

Recent AI Impact Changes

Mar 2026: Updated blog to cover security officers broadly including courthouse and maritime

[Source: Blog Wave 19]

Mar 2026: New evergreen blog post: AI impact analysis for bodyguards published

[Source: aichanging.work]